We’re back with this year’s edition of our trademark breakdown of the favourites to make this year’s Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue cover. The 2013 SI Swimsuit Issue is a milestone as it marks the 50th edition. There have been forty cover models over the first 49 issues starting with Babette March back in 1964.
Continuing with our annual tradition of Swimsuit Issue prognostication, today, we give you the official unofficial examination of who will make the cover of this year’s SI Swimsuit Issue.
99-1 Athlete
My theory of the SI Swimsuit cover inset says that a good indicator of future cover girls is the small inset occasionally shown on the SI Swimsuit Issue cover. Brooklyn Decker’s 2010 cover was preceded by an inset in 2009. Bar Refaeli had an inset in 2007 before making the cover in 2009. And Kate Upton got an inset as a rookie in 2011 and took home the cover in 2012. Alex Morgan’s bodypaint shoot got her the inset in the 49th issue so the theory suggests an athlete covering the issue is coming in the near future. However, with the last back-to-back appearance by an athlete coming backing in 2008 & 2009 with Danica Patrick, I don’t think one of last year’s athletes is likely to be on the cover this year. Yet it would also be appropriate for a magazine called Sports Illustrated to have an athlete on the cover of a milestone edition of the Swimsuit issue.
75-1 The Field
I wanted to have an even number on this list so I’ve grouped everyone else in The Field. This is everyone not named below who isn’t an athlete. This includes your Alyssa Millers and Genevieve Mortons of the world who have made the issue in the past but are longshots to make the cover this year. If you’re an SI Swimsuit model who has made a splash in the past and especially over the last twelve months, you’re named in this list. I really do think that having name recognition to move copies really helps your case to make the cover. Basically, my philosophy in creating this list has always been that I don’t think the cover is just about looks.
40-1 Genevieve Morton
I don’t want to chalk it up to simply nationality but I’m not sure how Kate Upton can be today’s it-girl and Genevieve Morton hasn’t gained much traction outside her native South Africa. The thing is that they’re very similar. Both are curvy blonds who have landed SI Swimsuit cover appearances in their home counties and been the feature of photoshoots of major men’s magazines in their native lands. Right now, though, we’re talking about the SI Swimsuit Issue that’s released in America. As such, the fact that Morton is a relative unknown in the US makes a cover for her very unlikely.
35-1 Cintia Dicker
I’m not sure that I can say that I’ve led the Cintia Dicker for the SI cover bandwagon but I feel as though I’ve rated her chances better than anyone else. Maybe I have a thing for redheads… Anyway, recent history shows SI models who have lasting power having runs of upwards of five years. Apart from Anne V, more than five appearances is almost unheard of. This year will mark her fifth appearance and it’s usually in the 4th or 5th appearance that a model makes the cover. It looks as though this is an all or nothing year for Cintia and I think she’ll come up empty again.
30-1 Hannah Davis
Swimsuit Issue rookie Hannah Davis is rumoured to be on SI’s internal shortlist for the cover. I’ve never seen anyone figure out the exact figures but I do know that, apart from Beyonce, a rookie hasn’t made the cover in recent memory. You’d have to be an absolute superstar to make the cover as a rookie and if she wasn’t dating Derek Jeter, would you have heard of Davis? I know I’ve said in the past that when there’s smoke, there’s fire but I’m not buying it here.
25-1 Izabel Goulart
Izzy probably has one of the more impressive resumes on this list, apart from the ones with “SI Cover Model” on their’s. She’s a frequent model for Victoria’s Secret which is, understandably, considered a top job in modelling. Few models have been regulars for both SI and VS but those who have a pretty big names. Brooklyn Decker, Melissa Miller and Kate Upton have all done work for Victoria’s Secret and landed the cover so there is some crossover there. I just don’t see Goulart making the cover this year because of the popularity of the talent ahead of her on this list.
24-1 Anne V
Poor Anne just seems to get constantly lost in the shuffle at SI. If ever there was a year to give her the cover by herself, this would be it. A milestone issue’s cover featuring the longest tenured Swimsuit Issue model in SI history would only be fitting. However, I think it’s far more likely that Anne gets on the cover next year in a sort of all-star cover. But if you’re looking for a risk big, win big guess, Anne would be the one to go with. Definite darkhorse potential to make the cover.
20-1 Chrissy Teigen
They say that controversy creates cash and SI sure would be courting a fair bit of it by selecting Teigen. If you follow her on Twitter (and you really should unless you’re a Republican, a misogynist or insecure), you’d know that she’s very funny and very, very outspoken. While I don’t think that’s even close to a bad thing, I don’t think that the bosses at SI would want to risk the social media shitstorm that could be caused by Republicans, Chris Brown fans and people lacking a sense of humour if Teigen is on the cover. Apart from that, she hasn’t been as busy on the modelling front as some of the other women on the list which generally doesn’t bode well for one’s chances of making the cover.
15-1 All-Star Cover
SI is usually pretty good at knowing the difference between an issue number and an issue anniversary. For example, this year’s Swimsuit Issue isn’t the 50th anniversary but the 50th edition. I could see SI bringing back some big names for next year’s 50th Anniversary. This year, they probably won’t do a big retrospective type thing unless they forget how to count like the WWE did with WrestleMania 25 (which was really the 24th Anniversary of WrestleMania and not the 25th).
10-1 Irina Skayk
It’s been a while since we’ve last seen a cover model get a second turn on the cover. The last model to make multiple covers (excluding the 2006 all-star cover) was Daniela Pestova whose covers were in 1995 and 2000. Apart from those whose second cover appearance was in 2006, only seven models have multiple covers to their credit and they’re a who’s who list of models. Could Irina Shayk be the eighth member of that list? The odds aren’t in her favour but if anyone on this list can pull that off, I would say that Irina would be the most who’s who of who’s on this list.
4-1 Kate Upton
Fair warning: Kate isn’t the last name on this list. Yes, despite all the magazine shoots and general increase in her stardom, I’m not picking Kate Upton for the cover. First, when it comes to actual modelling, the next woman on the list is doing far more work than Upton. Second, recent cover selection trends have SI turning a model into a star and moving on to another star in the making. If anyone can buck the trend, it would be Kate. However, I’m not planning to put my money on it.
7-2 Nina Agdal
I don’t want to make myself sound too important but I feel as though I’m putting my prognosticating reputation on the line by going with a relatively unproven model like Agdal as my choice for the cover. The thing is that I actually think she can pull off the upset. Upton’s rookie of the year follow-up campaign was marked by numerous shoots modelling for various lines. Nina’s following that path. Kate may be doing the magazine shoots this year but she didn’t do them in the run up to the cover. I think Agdal’s fast rising stardom on the internet and in the modelling world can win her the coveted cover spot this year.
Obligatory Legal-ish Disclaimer: This post is for entertainment purposes only. If you gamble your money based on the ramblings of a man who’s never bet a dime in his life, it’s your own damn fault. Hell, we aren’t even sure about the full line-up of models in this year’s issue yet.
The Lowdown 
My personal thoughts
> I very much doubt a rookie would get the 50th edition cover – it’s just a little too big this year (But wouldn’t be surprising if Hannah could get the cover 2015 or after – especially if jeter is still in the picture)
> As some others on other forums have pointed out it is doubtful that there’d be a big celebration this year for the 50th edition then again next year for the 50th anniversary – It is one or the other I would of thought.
If that is so and the 2014 edition is just considered the 51st edition I reckon that Anna V will want to reach the double digits appearance and be the 1st model to do it (I think if she was going to say she has had enough it would of been before now) and I just don’t see SISE as being mad enough not to celebrate that achievement next year (esp as Anna is becoming more well known every year and will have a movie or 2 under her belt by that time)
So Anna for SISE 2014 cover already penciled in – perhaps ruling her out of the cover for 2013!
> I can’t believe that no one has noticed this on the SISE forums but for the last few years the one consistent of the SISE cover is that there has been someone with bodypainting on the cover and SISE bodypainting is one of the most well known features of the magazine.
This years bodypainting recreates 3 of the most famous covers in SISE cover history (with Nina – SI model with most hype and highest rising profile of all the models this year, Ariel and Chrissy – very popular/good friends with the SI staff (just check twitter) and Alyssa – her fanbase has been slowly growing, workload increase and her longterm partner is one of the SISE photographers which won’t hurt) – along with Nina I think that Alyssa has the potential to ‘do a Kate Upton’ and the SISE cover to have the potential to have a huge knock on effect on both profile and careers). Also I believe these 4 are the only models to have shoot in 2 locations this year
Also the SISE cover is (almost) always on a beach which was where the bodypainting was done this year. (I’m not convinced this photoshoot is for the regular body paint feature as SISE have body painting images of Marisa Miller recreating other past covers – pictures on google – I think that may be the main body painting feature this edition).
My bet is a fold out cover (folding out with all 3 recreated covers with body painting) – with a choice of these 3 covers on the non folded away front to collect. Kate Upton in the Antarctic on the insert.
(that being said SISE in recent years have under wheimed with their choice of cover shoots so they may not of thought of the above as an option 🙂 )
i think you have good points with your own predictions though Steve – they make a good read every year at this time 🙂
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