Betting on the Super Bowl

People who gamble on the NHL All-star game and NFL Pro Bowl are probably people who should check into an addiction therapy center, if you lose. I brilliantly took Team Lidstrom and the over in the All-star game (you knew Toews and Thomas were going to try because they are too competitive) and the NFC and the over in the Pro Bowl (no one tries in this game but Vick, Ryan, and Brees have way more natural skill than Cassell and Peyton wasn’t going to try) and won all four bets. Thus I have a little extra money to gamble on Super Bowl prop bets for the big game on Sunday. So here are 5 great prop and otherwise bets and 7 fun/I have a gambling problem bets that I will be wagering on this weekend.

The thing about prop bets is that more often than not you’re going to lose money on them but you’re going to have a lot of fun cheering for them to happen during the game so I wouldn’t gamble too heavily on them but a little money goes along way to having fun. All lines and bets can be found on http://www.sportsbook.com and try to enjoy yourself this weekend watching the Super Bowl with ignorant non-football fans who are more excited about the half time show or even worse the commercials. There is something a little sick about cheering for good advertising as if it is a luxury. Good advertising should be the standard not the exception. Anyway…

1. Steelers (+2.5) Over Packers

No home teams this week I suppose. Everything seems to be leaning towards the Packers but I have a sneaky feeling about the Steelers. I think the defences will be a wash as they have both been excellent all season. Pittsburgh may have an advantage at running back, while Green Bay has an advantage at offensive line.

Now by all accounts Rodgers has been very good (great) during the playoffs but outside of the Falcons game he hasn’t been able to finish anyone. The Eagles and the Bears both remained in the game because Rodgers couldn’t make the play when they needed him. Granted Chicago had a great defence but after that pick to Urlacher (nice tackle by the way) he couldn’t move the ball particularly well. Rodgers won’t be able to bury the Steelers and that is why they will lose because when there is less than two minutes left Ben Roethlisberger may be more clutch than any other QB in the game.

I think that this game will either be a blowout or come down to the final five minutes but either way I like the Steelers. In a game that I haven’t felt very strongly about all this time because they teams are so similarly dominant I like Pittsburgh’s ability to deal with the pressure better than Green Bay’s and for them to win the game. The points are even better.

2. Roethlisberger over 11.5 yards rushing

I like this bet a lot especially if Pouncy isn’t playing or if he isn’t ready to go. In the last 11 games Roethlisberger has rushed an average of 18 yards of game and rushed for 12 or more in 8 of those games. Picture this, the Steelers offensive line breaks down and Ben is looking for a target, he eludes a sure sack, sees Heath Miller breaking on a seam route, pump fakes causing a linebacker to over commit and then runs 13 yards for a first down. Seems like it is something that is likely to happen, n’est pas? Also how great would it be to cheer for this? Ben starts running and you start going ballistic confusing all of your friends who are non-rape fans, fun ensues for everyone.

3. Heath Miller over 38.5 yards receiving

This is also a great bet to win and cheer for. According to FootballOutsiders.com the Packers are weak against defending the tight end. This and the fact that Miller has averaged 41 yards in every game he has played with Roethlisberger this season and broke 39 yards 7 times out of 12 times while hitting 38 another time. Good odds for it to happen in this game although I suspect it will be tight. I also have him scoring a touchdown but I wouldn’t necessarily recommend it.

4. Past vs. Present Super Bowl Performances
Brett Favre Super Bowl XXXI Passing Yards (He threw 246 in this Super Bowl) +30.5 over Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards Super Bowl XLV

Essentially you are betting the Rodgers under for passing but in a more clever way. The down side is that this is difficult to cheer for but is probably going to happen. The Steelers are the masters of running time off the clock. They do it really well because they make a lot third downs and keep the clock running. This means that not a lot of plays will be made, which keeps passing yards down. Additionally the Steelers are a good defence (generic and overdone statement) and Rodgers averaged 274 yards per game that he finished which is less than the bet in case you are mathematically challenged.

5. Total Points-Under 45.5
The thing about the Super Bowl is that it is so filled with commercials that it is impossible for any team to gain any momentum and keeps defences fresh. Fresh defences have a much higher probability of stopping offences, not matter how electrifying they are. The only way to work down defences is to go no huddle which neither offence is likely to do although Pittsburgh may try. The Steelers also had the number 1 red zone defence in the league which may convert some of Green Bay’s TDs to some FGs. Not fun to root for though. Also you have the top two defences in the league in points against (note both teams got crush by New England) and if they hold to their season average of 14.5 (PIT) and 15 (GB) that would be a total of 19. This game may be a shootout but play the odds and the odds say low scoring.

Now onto the “I have a gambling problem and will have my knee caps broken cyberly by my overseas internet following this weekend” bets of the week.

1. How long will Christina Aguilera hold the note BRAVE at the end of the Star Spangled Banner? Over Six Seconds

Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal addressed this on their podcast on Monday with Sal giving some great insight that she usually held it between 5 and 7 seconds. Sounds like a coin flip bet right? Wrong. The Super Bowl is the biggest event in the United States every year and Americans are super patriotic. Hence they love it when the note is held for a long time. Christina will come through for us. I tipped her off too.

2. How many times will FOX mention Brett Favre on TV during the game (live commentary only, any taped or past video does not count towards wager/must say Brett Favre exactly)? Over 2.5

I might get burned on this one but I really like this bet for a couple of reasons. The first is that Brett Favre will probably be retiring at the end of this season and that will be worth a couple of mentions plus it’s the Green Bay Packers so there will inevitably be several mentions of how Rodgers succeeded Favre and eventually Joe Buck who knows little about football and a lot of about Lego hair cuts will make the comparison because that’s all he can thing of. It would be really fitting if it came after an across the body pick.

3. Time on the Game Clock when the winning team attempts to dump Gatorade on Head Coach. Under 45 Seconds.

The Steelers are smart enough to wait and the Gatorade is more appropriate at the end of the game rather than with a minute left. Its more classy to shake the opposition coaches hand with a sticky hand after all.

4. Will a punt by any team hit the Scoreboard during the game? Yes

Just a pure joy to cheer for at each punt. Very unlikely to happen though…

5. Will a Steelers player do the Aaron Rodgers championship belt celebration during the game (must clearly appear on TV during the game/live picture only/any taped pictures or past video does not count towards wager)? Yes

Possible conversation that Roger Goodell’s FBI-like security may have recorded between a Steelers linebacker and friend who has in trouble with his bookie.

Friend: “Looked STEELERPLAYER I just lost my Pro Bowl under and AFC parlay and I can’t afford to pay my bookie.”

Steeler: “Why did you bet on the Pro Bowl? You know its not real football right? And how much did you lose?”

Friend: “I thought Cassell would really come through for me and Rivers.”

Steeler: “Rivers didn’t even make the playoffs and you didn’t answer my question.”

Friend: “$50,000”

Steeler: “F@$%, I won’t even make that this game.”

Friend: “I know I already checked, your union screwed you. The Super Bowl makes millions of dollars for every commercial and you get paid a stupid $22,000 just like everyone else. Anyway I don’t need money I just need you to do Rodgers stupid belt taunt thing after you make a stop or a sack.”

Steeler: “Why?”

Friend: “Because I gambled on it already.”

Steeler: “You can gamble on shit like that.”

Friend: “Yeah”

Steeler: “Damn…”

80% sure that the above conversation happened somewhere. Some players friend is definitely gambling on this somewhere.

6. What color will the Gatorade be that is dumped on the head coach of the winning team? Clear/Water

It’s a given. Players lacked creativity and no coach wants to have to wash a sticky jacket after the game.

7. Who will have more on Feb 6th 2011 – Listed Players Must Play –
Blake Griffin (Clippers) Points (NBA) over Packers Points

Average points per game for Green Bay are 24.3 points and Griffin has averaged 26 points all January. I am betting on a low scoring game obviously and this is just another fun way to do that. Also I am pretty sure you can hedge this bet because Blake will be done by kick off so if he goes crazy you can bet the over parlayed with something else or vice versa… I haven’t worked it out quite yet.

Good luck this weekend and have fun watching the game. If you have no rooting interest then find some bets that you like and put some money on them and cheer for them to happen. There is no greater pleasure than winning some stupid bet about the length of an anthem.