NFL Week 14 Picks

A poor gambling week for yours truly who, although killing it in my picks last week, managed to lose an improbable sixth team teaser (I’m a sucker I know) because the Chargers couldn’t cover a minus 7 spread. Really San Diego? Just when I get on the bandwagon and the Raiders finally looked like they were dead team that they were supposed to be, they come out and put the beat down on a statistically impressive Chargers team. I hate Oakland.

Luckily I made some money back by betting heavily on New England on Monday Night because that was a no-brainer. Patriots with a long prep week and Sanchez in miserable conditions that are far from ideal equals money in the bank. The marquee match-up this week has to the Patriots at Bears but there are two games with bigger implications and may be more interesting to watch; Raiders at Jaguars and Chiefs at Chargers. Other than that there aren’t too many games really worth tuning into unless you have money on the line. And that is why the NFL is far more popular than any other major sport because gambling is so easy and rampant. So let’s get started on making some money this week. Home team is in CAPS and line is provided by http://www.sportsbook.com.

Colts (-4) Over TITANS

Can the Colts really lose four in row? I highly doubt it. But they have certainly been letting me down recently. Truthfully I believe that the Colts could lose four in a row if they were playing even a reasonable team like the Jaguars or someone. But they are playing the Titans who appear to have checked out almost completely. Randy Moss has disappeared; Fisher has demolished Chris Johnson fantasy owners’ chances by never running him and there has been no consistency at quarterback. The Titans appear to have lost it and I think they are done for the season. I fully expect Jeff Fisher to be gone in the off-season (lock-out not pending) and for Vince Young to be the starting quarterback. This game is probably not the titanic battle that schedule-makers were hoping for when they originally schedule this game.

JAGUARS (-4) Over Raiders

Screw the Raiders. I never know which team is going to show up. I really like the Jags over them this week though for a couple of reasons. The Raiders don’t travel well especially to the East Coast, for whatever reason it really throws off the West Coast teams. Secondly the Raiders haven’t played teams out of their division that hard. I don’t think the Raiders get up for this game (even though they should) and I think that the Jags have enough power to get past an uninspired Oakland team. I wonder if this game will be blacked out?

Bengals (+8.5) Over STEELERS

A divisional game and the Steelers O-line is even more injured than ever. The Bengals played the Saints tight and have kept some games close and usually score some garbage touchdowns late in the game. I expect that happens against the Steelers as well. Cincinnati sure has fallen far this season though.

Browns (+1) Over BILLS

I think Colt McCoy is starting this week but I would take these points even if Jake Delhomme was the starting. The reason for picking the Browns is of course being Peyton Hillis. I think Hillis will enjoy running in an open field which is the equivalent of the Bills defence. The Bills got crushed last week and their season is pretty much over but I think they will keep this game close but they won’t win which will actually benefit them. I was surprised to see that the Bills were actually favoured in this game though.

Browns (+1.5) Over BILLS

I think Colt McCoy is starting this week but I would take these points even if Jake Delhomme was the starting. The reason for picking the Browns is of course being Peyton Hillis. I think Hillis will enjoy running in an open field which is the equivalent of the Bills defence. The Bills got crushed last week and their season is pretty much over but I think they will keep this game close but they won’t win which will actually benefit them. I was surprised to see that the Bills were actually favoured in this game though.

Giants (-3) Over VIKINGS

Have we seen the last of Favre? Who cares. The Giants roll bad teams and Minnesota is a bad team. The Vikings put away the Bills quite easily last week and actually cost me my pick’em pool for the week. But Tavaris Jackson still threw three picks. Three! The Giants ran the ball really well last week and I bet they do that again this week. Giants win big. I actually had this at minus seven when I first made my pick. Minus 3 is really good.

Green Bay Packers (-7) Over LIONS

The Packers cruised over the 49ers last week and their vaunted air attack appears to be working. Detroit has played well all season but they are still starting a third string quarterback. I saw on the news that Stafford is throwing again and I wonder if we’ll see him again this year. I really like the Lions going into next year especially with another high draft pick. Sadly I don’t think that they make it to four wins this year but they have been steadily improving since Schwartz came in. Still the Packers put up points and will probably enjoy playing in dome instead of outside.

Falcons (-7.5) Over PANTHERS
Book it. Its done. I don’t actually like the nickname Matty Ice for Matt Ryan. Can we come up with something better please?

Buccaneers (-2) Over REDSKINS

You know why Washington won’t win this game? Because they have too many off the field issues. Now apparently the team supports the coach in this matter but lets be honest every player on every team has some friends and they will inevitably back Albert. Lets be honest the Redskins completely mishandled the situation. They had a chance to cut him before they cut him a check. He had trade value after they paid him and they didn’t. Everyone wants to blame Haynseworth and admittedly he has some blame in this fiasco but there is a failure of leadership from the Redskins management team. They knew that he didn’t want to play in their system and they need they had a problem and they never dealt with it. I truly believe that Mike Shanahan is a coach who is great at coaching good players but doesn’t have that extra layer to get the most out of his troubled players which every team has. Good coaches get the best out of all their players. Bad coaches blame players when they lose. (Take note Ron Wilson).

Rams (+9) Over SAINTS

I like this Rams team. I don’t think that they beat the Saints straight up but they will keep this game close. The Saints got pretty lucky when they forced Cincinnati off-side for no reason. I still don’t know how that worked. The Saints haven’t crushed many teams this year and the Rams have amazingly played quite well this year. They will keep this game close enough to cover.

49ERS (-5.5) Over Seahawks

Ugh really. I don’t want to watch this at all. Alex Smith is starting again and that’s not a great reason to pick the 49ers but I don’t trust Seattle on the road. Part of me does think that the 49ers are trying to throw this game though. Wonder if Brian Westbrook gets in the game more this week? Who cares…moving on.

Patriots (-3) Over BEARS

Apparently I like the road teams this week. I don’t want to sound like a public sucker betting the Patriots but they are playing the Bears, a team I hate. The Bears didn’t cover (depending on when you took them) against the Lions who were starting their third string quarterback. And they won because Chaos N’ Suh (yes I am propagating Simmons proposed nickname) hits harder than any player in the league. I didn’t think that was unnecessary roughness, I thought Cutler had it coming. The Bears have a good win against Philly and they are home where they do enjoy a distinct home field advantage but the Patriots demolished the Jets and their offence looks unstoppable. The Bears have a shot because their defence has been impressive but Brady looks like he is in 2007 mode and that should scare every team in the AFC.

JETS (-5.5) Over Dolphins

Sanchez rebounds well after bad games and he has a long history of it. The Jets got a little bit of swagger knocked out of them by the Pats but there is no doubt in my mind that they will absolutely destroy them this week. The reason that they will beat them so badly is because Chad Henne has proven that he is not ready for the big times yet. Jets blow out the Dolphins. Another Jets note is that they recently tried to hire a new safety that turned them down because he is a conductor. Say what you will about his choice but that guy has two great prospects while I have none sadly.

Broncos (-3) Over CARDINALS

Sadly for the Cardinals, I don’t even know who the Cardinals are starting at quarterback this weekend and that really scares me. I wasn’t surprised to see McDaniels get fired and I don’t know anything about the new head coach but the Broncos are still a handful to deal with when they have the ball. Kyle Orton has cooled slightly the past couple of weeks but he is still quite capable of throwing for 300 yards on a bad defence. Knowshon Moreno can also hurt you on the run game. Arizona is a mess and its crazy how far they have fallen when two years ago they were one stop away from winning the Super Bowl.

CHARGERS (-3) Over Chiefs (No line posted due to Cassel

I can’t believe that the Chargers lost last week. Still in shock over it. I would like to think that they rebound over the Chiefs this week. Rivers should throw well against the Chiefs and now that Cassel is recovering from his surgery I fully expect the Chargers to roll. That being said I wouldn’t be surprised if the Chiefs managed to run against the Chargers and of course beat them on the special teams but overall I think the Chargers take this game.

Eagles (-3) Over COWBOYS

Sadly this is our Sunday Night game; although there are not many other good games this week. I like the way the Eagles play. It is really electrifying and they just seem to create big plays. Andy Reid is very good off of bye weeks and has some extra time to prepare for this game. Still don’t like Jon Kitna but he has performed admirably. I think the loss of Dez Bryant isn’t that big a deal because the Cowboys don’t use him effectively but it still hurts a little. I like Vick to run and throw on a mediocre defence and with ideal field conditions the Eagles should cruise.

TEXANS (+6) Over Ravens

I think the Ravens have weaknesses and that Houston will be able to capitalize on a team that is a little down after their lost to Pittsburgh and I actually think that this game will be mildly entertaining. Should be closer than last week’s game I imagine anyway.

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