I can’t believe that it is week 12 already. This season is flying by. Last week we saw the contenders really pull away and the playoff pictures is certainly clearer except in the pathetic NFC West where the division winner has a real shot at going 7-9 which would be really embarrassing. It is entirely possible this weekends Grey Cup winner could have won that division. The best part is, that this is your Monday Night game. How pissed off would you be if you’re ESPN. Relax they will still make a ton of money anyway.
Last week I did pretty well all things considering. I nailed three parlays which somehow all hinged on the Chargers beating the Broncos, which they did in ridiculous fashion.
Same thing as usual, home teams will be in CAPS, line is from www.sportsbook.com.
Patriots (-7.5) Over LIONS
Likely already happened by the time you’re reading this but I like the Pats because I think that the Lions might just be too beat up to compete. They won’t have a running game and while I think Hill may be one of the best back-up QBs in the league but he is still a back up recovering from an arm injury. The Patriots executed really well against the Colts. They were fantastic on third downs and even I have to admit the Colts really had no business almost winning that game. It should not have been that close. The lack of prep time concerns me that this game will be close but I still feel like the Pats execute so well on offence that they should win by ten points. Plus it’s in a dome which really helps.
Saints (-4.5) Over COWBOYS
Time for a reality check for the Cowboys. The Saints are getting healthier and are now a very sneaky 7-3. The defending champs look like they are ramping up for the playoffs and should crush the Cowboys. If the Cowboys manage to win this game, I would give Jason Garrett the head coach job next year because that would be an impressive win. The thing about the Saints is that they never stop trying to score. Plus do we trust Jon Kitna yet? I don’t.
Bengals (+9.5) Over JETS
Yikes third road team to cover the spread in a row. Not good. The Bengals couldn’t play with the lead against Buffalo but they play pretty well from behind. Or just well enough to cover a large spread. Jets will jump out to a two touchdown lead and the Bengals will come back to cover the spread. By the way, TO will get a lucky touchdown in this game, I am sure of it. It’s the Bengals MO. Jets have been lucky the last couple of weeks but they don’t need luck to win this game. Watch this game on mute. The three man booth that NFL Network has, has a way of making ears melt and bleed like that weird guy whose face melts in Indiana Jones. Listen to music or practice your own commentating skills. Your friends will love you if you do that.
Vikings (+1) Over REDSKINS
The Vikings have a new coach who by all accounts deserved a head job at some point. He gets his chance and will no doubt pull a Jason Garrett and crush his first game. For whatever reason Childress was hated by the team and they locked the coach out. It should be a better situation. This is a weird battle of two QBs with roller coaster-like records. The winner will get too much praise and the loser will get too much hate.
Steelers (-7) Over BILLS
Buffalo has kept games close but the Steelers just rolled Oakland and should roll the Bills. The Bills only have a chance if Fitzpatrick can exploit the Pittsburgh secondary which I don’t like the chances of. Should be a somewhat close game and hopefully interesting. The Bills also don’t want to win this game and move too far away from drafting high.
Titans (+6.5) Over TEXANS
Look, stupid QB controversy aside the Titans have a chance in any game because of Chris Johnson. Rusty Smith (who?) has a chance to put up numbers on the Texans simply because that secondary is so bad. Maybe Randy Moss has a catch this game… maybe. The Texans have shown that they have a knack to give games away. The Titans have played an extremely tough schedule so far and if they have any chance of making the playoffs they need this game. 6.5 points is way too high to for a Texans team that has only proven that no matter how many times we say they will be better this year they never are. Gary Kubiak you are on the hot seat.
GIANTS (-7) Over Jaguars
The Giants rebound after two bad losses and should bounce the Jags who are turnover prone and miraculously still somehow in the playoff picture. The line is pretty high given that the Jags are a division leader, no? Now that i have picked the Giants I fully expect Eli to turn against me.
BROWNS (-10) Over the Panthers
The Browns need a statement win and the Panthers need a high draft pick. Carolina managed to keep last weeks game closish until two pick sixs but I think the Browns are a better team period. Looks like Carolina will be walking into the Andrew Luck sweepstakes and they shouldn’t bother to do anything to change their chances of that.
Packers (+1.5) Over FALCONS
The Falcons have to lose at home at some point, right? I really think that Aaron Rodgers will cut up Atlanta’s secondary and the Packers will win a tight game. Atlanta almost got beat by both Tampa Bay and Baltimore at home. It is time for them to lose. Look for a high scoring game though. I think the best bet on this game is the over currently at 47.5 points.
Chiefs (2.5) Over SEAHAWKS
Seattle has an incredible home field advantage that only works when the crowd is in a game. I expect the crowd to be in this game but I still like the Chiefs. I think that the Chiefs are the better team period. Matt Cassell is an average quarterback that is going against a below average secondary. Don’t bother watching this game though I highly doubt that this will be a very entertaining game.
Buccaneers (+7.5) Over Ravens
I am picking the Bucs to win this game straight up. I can’t help but shake that game where Baltimore let Buffalo compete with them. They didn’t even roll Carolina in their game last week. Something is nagging me about Baltimore and I think they have made it too far on reputation. This game will prove something to me about both these teams. You have to like Tampa’s chances to make the playoffs if they win this game. One thing about the Bucs is that they believe in each other. Also they really crushed the 49ers last week.
Eagles (-3.5) Over BEARS
Finally the Bears play someone who we can measure them against. I still do not believe in this team at all. They should have lost to Detroit in Week 1 and they don’t have a win on the schedule that I am impressed by. The Bears do have a good defence though and maybe able to somewhat contain Vick but the Eagles team just has too many weapons. You literally can’t cover everyone and Vick. I expect Cutler to finally screw up (I have been waiting all year) and throw a couple of picks this game. Eagles roll.
Rams (+4) Over BRONCOS
I am really going for the road teams this week but I still really like this Rams team. They were in that Falcons game until the end. I think Bradford has a good game and so does Jackson. I really wonder what the Broncos do this week. They are so hot and cold. They have an advantage at home but its slight. I think that we might see a bit more Tebow this week which amuses no one anymore.
COLTS (-3) Over Chargers
Manning following a loss on a Sunday Night game. Its just not something you bet against even if the Chargers have the Colts number and Phillip Rivers is playing at the highest level of any QB in the league. Should be an excellent shootout. Probably the best game of the week. Way, way, way better than the Monday night game.
49ers (-1) Over CARDINALS
I refuse to right more about this game. I offended I will be watching this.
Good luck this week. Happy American Thanksgiving.