Yesterday, I gave you an update on how the Western Mustangs could make it to the finals.  Today, here’s the path that the Lakehead Thunderwolves can use to make it to the national championship game in their home town.

Pool A:
UNB 6 – Alberta 3
Alberta 2 – Lakehead 1
Saturday: UNB vs. Lakehead

So heading into tonight’s game, Lakehead finds themselves in a must win. If UNB wins, the Varsity Reds punch their tickets to a national championship game. If Lakehead wins (in regulation), all three teams in Pool A are tied on 2 points. Then we go to goal differential as the first tiebreaker. Alberta is on -2 and out of the running. UNB starts today on +3 while Lakehead is on -1. If Lakehead wins by 3 or more, they go through but UNB advances if Lakehead wins by 1. Let’s assume that Lakehead wins by 2 which sends us to the second tiebreaker. That’s our old friend the “Goal Differential Average” which is goal differential divided by goals against. UNB heads into tonight’s game with one more goal against than Lakehead. This means that if UNB loses by 2 to Lakehead, they will be eliminated from the championships despite being the best team at their tournament. It’s a nearly impossible task, but to get the finals, Lakehead must win by at least 2 goals.

Pool B:
Saint Mary’s 4 – McGill 1
McGill 4 – Western 3
Saturday: Western vs. Saint Mary’s

Like Lakehead, Western must win to move on. When we jump straight to the tiebreakers, McGill’s goal differential is -2 so they’re out. Western is at -1 while Saint Mary’s is a +3. Western needs to win by at least 2 to have a chance. The second tiebreaker is “Goal Differential Average.” Saint Mary’s will move on using this tiebreaker because Western will end the round robin with one more goal against than the Huskies.  For their own chance at gold, Western must win by at least 3 goals.

In all reality, your likely national final will be a one game rematch of the Atlantic final between the UNB Varsity Reds and Saint Mary’s Huskies.  The first time around, the Huskies pulled out the huge upset, winning the series 2 games to 1.  This time it’s one game for all the marbles.  I think that favours the team that’s hotter right now and is out for revenge.  Look for the Reds to claim their third national championship on Sunday.

If you’re looking for some good reading on the CIS Championships, Sportsnet’s Mark Spector wrote a good column on how the CIS is shooting itself in the foot by practically making no one care about the championship. Click here to read it. Based on the page view that my CIS posts get, I would tend to agree that CIS hockey is one of Canada’s best kept secrets.

The Lowdown’s CIS Hockey Championship Coverage:
March 25th: Preview
March 27th: Update
March 28th: Update
March 29th: Update
March 29th: Live Blog
March 29th: Finals Recap