I have to admit I wasn’t totally thrilled about the NHL playoffs when they began. I was tuning into Jays games and NBA playoff games and flipping to the initial NHL games. I was half heartedly cheering for San Jose and Philadelphia, realizing that they were probably going to lose. Washington has decided to play New Jersey Devils style hockey and would Phoenix move to Winnipeg was more fascinating than The Amazing Datsyuk. I was frustrated at the apparent disregard that other players had for everyone heads and the lack of suspensions. The NHL’s “History Will Be Made” commercials paled to last year’s commercials and didn’t elicit the same feelings. And I couldn’t find a story line or an exciting style of play to latch on to. That all changed when I realized why the majority of people who followed hockey before basketball hate the end of the end of basketball games (there is nothing more frustrating than watching 4 timeouts called in the last minute of a game and watching very few baskets) and when I couldn’t sleep and decided to tune into Game 3 of the Sharks and Kings series.

I cheer for the Sharks because I loved Joe Thornton the season when he won the Hart Trophy. But my love for Joe Thornton probably intensified due to the fact that he such a dominating force whenever he played and yet because the Sharks would lose in the playoffs, people (usually who hadn’t bother to actually watch the game) would dismiss him as an underperformer but I knew he wasn’t because hockey (and maybe soccer) is currently the only game that you can only properly evaluate if you don’t watch the game. Advanced statistics can measure performance fairly accurately in baseball, football, and basketball relatively well but no statistics exist for hockey because play is continuous and mistakes vs. great plays are difficult to determine and only matter if a goal is scored. So if you want trash talk a player and a team in hockey make sure you actually bother to watch the game. Anyway, the Kings went up 4-0 fairly quickly in the game and it was not looking good for the Sharks. Then the Sharks realized that they were full of multiple offensive talents and decided to put them to use. They staged a comeback reminiscent of the Miracle on Manchester (incidentally that also took place in Los Angeles) when the LA Kings (in wicked yellow uniforms) came back from 5-0 deficit to defeat Gretzky’s Oilers in overtime (LA fans were obviously less happy this year). They scored 5 goals in the second period and then went on to win the game in overtime. I had forgotten how tense and amazing playoff overtime hockey was. It is the most exciting/desperate/unpredictable sports event. Nothing compares to it because it can end so suddenly. This desperation hockey that I saw has continued every day since then. Look at all of the great games we have had since then: Game 4 Capitals vs. Rangers (Caps come back from down three goals, win in 2OT), Game 4 Penguins vs. Lightning (Roloson lets in a soft goal after a tremendous game in 2OT), Game 4 Bruins vs. Canadiens (back and forth OT win), Game 5 Sabres vs. Flyers (Buffalo almost blows the game, wins in OT), Game 5 Canadiens vs. Bruins (great, great game, Horton scores in 2OT), Game 6 Flyers vs. Sabres (Flyers make a great comeback, despite pulling goalie again), Game 6 Canucks vs. Blackhawks (OT win, after Luongo doesn’t start), Game 6 Sharks vs. Kings (Sharks kill a 5 minute major and win in OT), Game 7 Blackhawks vs. Canucks (So similar to the Gold Medal game). I look at that list and there are games that I have left off but as a hockey fan cheering for my secondary teams and players there has been a fantastic game every night for the past week. It is certainly not conducive for studying. We can only hope that the Game 7s tonight are as good (I have Bruins and Lightning for the record) and that the Conference Semi-Finals bring us as many good games. That being said lets take a look at the four Western Conference teams lucky and skilled enough to advance to the next round.

Vancouver Canucks (1) vs. Nashville Predators (5)

How did they get here?
The Predators took the easier route by finishing Anaheim in six games. They beat Anaheim in the same way that they succeeded in the regular season; they got balanced scoring and their defence was effective and Pekka Rinne outplayed the other goalie. In fact the only Predator that did not register a point during the first round of the playoff who played in a game was poor Shane O’Brien who was minus 2 and took 14 minutes in penalties. The Predators got a little lucky with Bobby Ryan stupidly getting himself suspended for 2 games but for the most part were able to shut down Anaheim’s Big 3. The found some success on their power play and were mostly thankful that Jonas Hiller had a bad case of Vertigo.

Vancouver looked like the dominating regular season team that it was when it pushed past Chicago the first three games but then the Blackhawks showed why you don’t trifle with Stanley Cup Champs. The Blackhawks won all the battles in games 4-6 and Game 7 was a toss up that while the Canucks certainly outplayed the Blackhawks, any bounce could have gone Chicago’s way and heads would have been rolling in Vancouver. Colby Armstrong (I find it weird that TSN is using current players as analysts but it been ok) made a great point of how Alex Burrows went from hero to goat so many times in that game. He missed his penalty shot and took a very stupid penalty in OT but he scores that great goal and he immediately becomes a hero. Vancouver’s talent won out in the first round but they will have to be mentally tougher if they want to advance to the Conference Finals.

Forwards: Edge Vancouver
Vancouver’s top forwards are unlike anything Nashville has ever had (Peter Forsberg a notable exception). The Sedin twins doubled Nashville’s leading point getters during the regular season but the Sedins were mysteriously quiet against Chicago. I suspect that they will have more success against Nashville because the Predators play more honest (?), at least a less physically and verbally abusive style of hockey than the Blackhawks. Nashville’s fourth line may be more productive than Vancouver’s but in the playoffs we don’t see that fourth line very often.

Defence: Slight Edge Nashville
I know people happily blamed Roberto Luongo allowing 10 goals over Games 4 and 5 but I honestly thing that the defence in front of him was pretty brutal during those games. They take some nights off it seems but they are still very proficient. They make good break out passes and usually play sound defensively but they are just a little behind Nashville’s group of defence who in my mind may be the best group of defencemen in the league. Pekke Renne gave up a couple of bad goals in the series against Anaheim that I would place little blame on the defence. They are fast and strong offensively. They are also very dynamite on defence and did a great job of minimizing Anaheim’s chances. The gap is big but Nashville has a clear advantage.

Goaltending: Edge Vancouver
Pekka Rinne had an incredible regular season but didn’t look particularly strong against Anaheim. I thought Roberto Luongo looked great at times against Chicago and then also a little shaky. The impossible to quantify mental quality of goaltending would appear to be even but I suspect Luongo will be happy to see Nashville’s pastel colours flying down the wing as opposed to Chicago’s dominating red. Luongo’s form is among the best in the league and in post season games where he doesn’t play Chicago his numbers have been fantastic. He’ll be better than Rinne but he even if he isn’t he wont be facing the same challenge that Rinne is.

Coaching: Slight Edge Vancouver
Vancouver has better special teams and I expect them dominate Nashville when they are on the power play (that is unless the Vancouver conspiracy is on and then I suspect Nashville will never get a penalty). Both coaches have gotten their teams to perform aptly and there isn’t much difference between them. Lets face it coaches aren’t going to make or break this series.

Prediction:
I think Nashville will be competitive but I suspect that Vancouver will be able to handle them. They are deeper than Nashville and have an edge in goaltending. Also a slightly less pressure series against Nashville is probably exactly what Vancouver is looking forward to. The Canucks might lose the first game coming off the high of winning Game 7 in overtime but they will be able to handle the Predators in 6 games. Sadly it won’t be as good a series as Chicago and Vancouver though.

San Jose (2) vs. Detroit Red Wings (3)

How did they get here?
I can’t remember the last time that Detroit played in the playoffs. It’s been a while since they handled the Winnipeg Jets quite handily in 4 games despite zero games played by one Mr. Zetterberg. They were dominating and while I think their competition was a little weak because they were only playing a poor team with one star (Keith Yandle) and an excellent coach. San Jose will present a much tougher challenge for them.

San Jose had a bit more of a difficult time getting to the second round. They faced a more difficult team in Los Angeles and won three overtime games in rather dramatic fashion. They played Sharks hockey pretty much; they were questionable in their own end and received below average goaltending (again) and were very effective in the offensive end. They got the bounces and LA didn’t.

Forwards: Even
Vancouver, Detroit and San Jose have very similar forward groups. They are deep, they are skilled and they can play physical. Thronton, Marleau and Heatley match up to Franzen, Datsyuk and Zetterberg and then the “role” (they might be first liners on other teams) are also very talented. There is very little difference between these two teams and this battle may be the most exciting of the round to watch. Ryane Clowe may be the difference maker in this series.

Defence: Edge Detroit
Detroit’s defence is deeper than San Jose’s and they also have more talent in my opinion. They play much better defensive hockey in my mind than San Jose with better positioning and take fewer penalties. San Jose has very good pinching defencemen that helps in the offensive zone but Detroit’s are also fairly good and I am pretty sure that this is a product of the similar coaching styles that are put in place by very similar coaches. Nevertheless Detroit is superior in their own end which gives them the edge.

Goaltending: Edge San Jose
Regular season numbers say that San Jose has an advantage over Detroit in goaltending with Niemi having superior numbers to Howard. The postseason gives a little bit of a different picture. Howard was strong and Niemi was pulled (twice I believe). Howard had a nice save percentage and Niemi was 0.863 and allowed some pretty terrible goals. But the playoffs are inherently a small sample size. Niemi has the better long term numbers and should be the better goaltender.

Coaching: Slight Edge Detroit
Master is greater than the student until otherwise noted. Not that McLellan is weak in any way but he’s not Mike Babcock. Also San Jose will need more than 2 power play goals in this series to beat Detroit.

Prediction:
Its hard to pick against Detroit because they are a pretty complete team and would seem to have the advantage but San Jose is a much deeper team up front than Phoenix. They can skate with Detroit and pressure their defence unlike anything Detroit faced in Phoenix. San Jose will beat Detroit just as they did last year and Detroit will be wondering what they need to do to improve for next year. Sharks in 5.