Ah the NHL playoffs are finally upon us after a long and difficult regular season we are ready to anoint a “true” champion. Although the regular season clearly showed that Vancouver was the best team by a wide margin, now they have to prove it the most random, impossible to predict playoff system that the NHL has. Don’t get me wrong I love it to death but if Vancouver doesn’t even get out of the first round I think it is unfair to say that they choked/suck/ whatever you want to say. Chicago won the Cup last year and once again is a very talented team (that almost wasn’t here). Sadly we measure the best team in one of the most inefficient ways possible but hey it’s damn exciting. Sometimes I think the EPL has it right (*gasp). Last year when the Sharks got to the Conference Finals and lost, people crowed how the choked once again but in reality they were at worst the 4 best team in the league and had an outstanding season. But anything less than a Cup winning season spells failure for every team.

There are four teams of the 16 in the playoffs that don’t have a realistic shot at winning the cup: Nashville, Phoenix, Montreal, and New York Rangers. If any of those teams win I would be surprised, anyone else can easily be explained why they won it. I have had Philadelphia and San Jose going to the Cup finals since 2006 and I see little reason to change that now given that anything can happen. Let’s break every series down to the nitty-gritty and I’ll give you some keys for teams to win. It goes without saying that goaltending is important and can swing any series. The physiological advantage of having a solid goalie behind you is immeasurable but has been proven again and again to be very important.

Western Conference Quarterfinal Matchups

Vancouver Canucks (1) vs. Chicago Blackhawks (8)

The Hawks needed a miracle to get into the playoffs but I have them at 8 on my season ending Power Ranking which sucks for Vancouver. Side note: this is why I would advocate for the highest teams getting to choose their opponent. I just think that would be really fun and the storylines would right themselves (“nobody respects us”, “we did it for the travel”, etc.) anyway. Vancouver has been in first for most of the year and while they had the easiest schedule by mark (they probably contributed to that somewhat) they have been thoroughly dominating all season. This will be an excellent series to watch for aggressive fore checking and exciting games.

Forwards:

Vancouver was the highest scoring team this year led by the Sedin twins, Kesler, and Burrows. They have been dominant and most importantly they have been incredibly consistent. They should have no trouble finding the back of the net against Chicago.

Chicago matches up fairly well against Vancouver with their set of forwards. Kane, Toews and Hossa highlight a three line deep set of forwards which is all they will need for the playoffs. They were the fourth highest scoring team this season.

Slight Edge Vancouver

Defence:

Amazingly Vancouver’s defensemen played very consistently throughout the entire season which is incredible given how many men went down with injuries at some point. Now healthier than they have been most of the season Vancouver’s defensemen have to be ready to defend against the speedy Hawks.

The Hawks also have a very deep blue line led by Keith, Seabrook and Campbell. The entire defence are very effective puck movers and do not hesitate to join a rush for an offensive opportunity. It’s a high risk high reward strategy that used effectively gives them a slight edge over the Canucks D-men.

Slight Edge Chicago

Goaltending:

Luongo is a great goalie and his only battle this series will be with himself. He doesn’t need to win the series by himself but he can’t allow the bad goals that are crushing on a team’s confidence. I think he will handle the challenge just fine.

Poor Corey Crawford. He’s not a terrible goaltender ranking 16th in save percentage and 7th in GAA this year but he is facing a very powerful offence and may be counted on just a little too much this series. Last year the Hawks were able to survive an average goaltender because of their depth elsewhere but that depth is gone and Crawford needs to steal at least one game for Chicago to the win this series.

Edge Vancouver

Coaching:

Quenneville won the cup last year. Both teams have great special teams (notable exception is Chicago’s PK ranked 25th this season). Both teams have aggressive fore checks systems that are a lot of fun to watch.

Even

Prediction:

Vancouver has been the best team in the league for almost the entire season. They were the highest scoring team and allowed the fewest goals in the league. They were first in PP and 2nd in PK and they are mostly healthy. There is not a good reason to pick Chicago and I won’t. The Blackhawks had the hangover at the beginning of the season and step up in the second half but they aren’t as good as they were last year as the have lost too many players. Crawford won’t be the reason they lose but he won’t win it for them either. Canucks cruise to a 4-1 Series win.

San Jose Sharks (2) vs. Los Angeles Kings (7)

Man I really wish that this series was on the east coast. It will be a little difficult to catch all of these late night games. The Sharks must be one of the most difficult teams to watch. For as proficient as they are in the offensive end (they have a dominant cycle and Dan Boyle may be one of the best pinching defensemen in the league) they are terrifying to watch in their own end. For whatever reason, they have a weak defensive system and this leads to them giving up some terrible goals at times. Goaltending is less of an issue this year because Niemi should provide the team with more confidence this year than Nabokov did last year. Los Angeles is a good team. They had a really difficult schedule this season and were in the toughest division in hockey. Sadly they lost leading scorer Anze Kopitar with a bad ankle injury is probably the most significant injury going into the playoffs. The Kings are a better defensive team than they are an offensive team which is surprising given how many scorers they have. As exciting as I think that this series will be I think it could be over pretty quickly.

Forwards:

San Jose is once again a power house on offence. Led by high scoring Patrick Marleau and assist machine Joe Thornton the Sharks were the sixth highest scoring team. Chipping in is Dany Heatley and Calder Candidate Logan Couture. The Sharks have a very deep set of forwards with 7 scoring over 20 goals. This will be critical because the opposition defences will have to key on more than one line which can be very difficult.

The Kings are lacking at the forward position going into the playoffs. Dustin Brown is one of the best power forwards in the league but he doesn’t have enough talent around him without Kopitar and Justin Williams. The Kings will need huge contributions from Smyth, Penner, and Handzus if they have any hope of keeping up with the Sharks

Edge San Jose

Defence:

The Sharks are about two defensemen deep. There is a drop off after Vlasic and Boyle. Demers and White just need to be consistent at the back end to keep San Jose in the game and not get beaten too badly. If we don’t hear about Murray, Demers, White, and Wallin then we can safely assume that they are doing their job.

Los Angeles has a nice set of defensemen. Although Doughty is suffering somewhat offensively the Kings have been very good in their own end. Scuderi has always been an excellent defensive defensemen and the great work in net by Bernier has probably made the defence look better than they are. The defensemen need be at the top of their game to shut down the high octane offense of the Sharks.

Slight Edge Los Angeles

Goaltending:

Antti Niemi took the head job half way through the season and hasn’t looked back since. He has been consistent and just outside the top ten in major statistical categories. The

Sharks won’t count on him to steal the series so as long as he doesn’t let in the bad goals then the Sharks should be pretty happy with that.

Jonathan Quick has a much better season than I thought he would. I honestly thought that the other Jonathan, Bernier, would take over the top job. Quick has been dominating at times this season. Quick was 5th in GAA and has a .918 save percentage, he will need to be better than that if Los Angles is to move onto the second round.

Slight Edge Los Angeles

Coaching:

Todd McLellan is a product of Detroit’s system and naturally the Sharks have a strong power play. Their penalty kill has been weak but that may be more of a reflection of their personnel than his coaching abilities. I don’t know much about Terry Murray’s style but he must emphasize defence because his teams don’t allow a lot of shots and are very good penalty killers. They have a weaker power play and aren’t as good offensively. So the matchups don’t really favour one team over the other.

Even

Prediction:

Los Angeles is too injured up front too score enough goals to win this series. Providing Niemi stays consistent and provides stable goalie San Jose should prevail in a relatively quick but hard fought play off series. Sharks win 4-2 and Los Angeles retools next year where they should be a much better team.

Detroit Red Wings (3) vs. Phoenix Coyotes (6)

This series would have been better if it was Winnipeg or Hamilton playing Detroit. I think Detroit would even be happier with that type of travel too. It is a credit to Dave Tippet to for keeping his players focussed on hockey and not on the drama surrounding the team (which is a mess by the way, remember that time Jim Balsille wanted to pay $240 million for the team and $50 million to the city for just agreeing with him, ah that’s more than they’ll get now). Tippet may be one of the tactically best coaches in the league or may be taking advantage of one of the best goalies in the league. Either way Phoenix is not a team to be easily dismissed (even though I will shortly). Detroit has been Detroit again (gee really). 20 years in a row in the playoffs but oddly I was able to find playoff tickets for $8 online (I wonder if they are real). This team is the same that they have been for years: good coaching, consistent defence, finesse offence, questionable goaltending. They finished 7th in my season ending power rankings and have as a good a shot to win the Cup as anyone. This should be one of the closest series as last years match-up showed but I probably won’t watch because as much as I love the way Detroit plays (do yourself a favour and catch Datsyuk and Zetterberg live sometime, they are some of the best on the puck, off the puck players ever to play), I absolutely detest the way Phoenix play. They play a trap system and wait back for an opponent to make a mistake, its reminiscent of the Devils sadly (also I absolutely hate their sweaters, I am weird I know).

Forwards:

Deep, skilled and fast. They are marvels on ice and play very well together. Todd Bertuzzi has quietly had a solid campaign and Holmstrom always seems to get up in the playoffs. And that’s before we get to Datsyuk and Zetterberg. Detroit is also loaded with experience which may be over-rated but can’t be discounted if this series goes to seven games.

Can you name Phoenix’s highest scoring forward after Shane Doan? Full marks if you correctly named Ray Whitney (half marks if you said Keith Yandle, he’s second but a defensemen). Phoenix is full of nobodies on forwards who all buy in to the system that Tippet preaches but are not of full of skills. Phoenix will rely on a distribution of scoring to win this series but it seems unlikely that they will be the credited party if Phoenix manages to win this series.

Edge Detroit

Defence:

Detroit’s defence is a very nice balance of young and old, and offensive and defensive. The way they play defence is different than most other teams. They don’t punish you physically like some teams do they merely beat with skill. They make the first pass out of their end and they are dynamite on the power play. They aren’t the best group of defensemen in the league but they are really close.

Keith Yandle highlights a group of effective and unheralded group of defensemen. They play their system very well and not much more than that.

Edge Detroit

Goaltending:

Jimmy Howard had a great fantasy season because he racked up a high number of wins but he isn’t a great goalie. He wasn’t in the top twenty in save percentage or goals against average. He is Detroit’s one weakness but one that they should be able to overcome. But if Detroit is going to lose this series it seems likely that Howard will be the reason.

Ilya Bryzgalov is a star goalie. Not many goalies have faced as may shots as Bryzgalov. Fortunately he has been up to the challenge to stop them. He will be looking for a new contract in the offseason (sadly the Leafs aren’t on his wish list) and the playoffs is a great time to showcase your talent. He is the one person who has the ability to win the series all by himself.

Edge Phoenix

Coaching:

As much as I speak the praise of Dave Tippet as a defensive coach he clearly has his limitations. His team is ranked very low in both power play and penalty killing. He is

good but Mike Babcock is in my opinion the best coach in the NHL. He is an excellent evaluator of talent and his teams play the most fantastic style of offensive (this shows up statistically as they lead the league in assists) in the league. His focus may be on offense but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t teach defence like Mike D’Antoni (whoops wrong sport). In the coaching hierarchy there isn’t anyone above him on my list.

Edge Detroit

Prediction:

I wouldn’t be surprised if Phoenix won this series because time and time again we have seen great goaltenders steal series from better teams but Detroit is the better team and has home ice and has a better coach. Even missing Zetterberg, they should still win this series handily. Red Wings win in 5.

Anaheim Ducks (4) vs. Nashville Predators (5)

I watched precisely one Nashville game this season and it was against Toronto so it was not a great barometer for their talents. The Predators have had another good season, no doubt because of the fantastic coaching of Barry Trotz and because the Nashville goalie factory continues to produce premium products. Pekka Rinne had an incredible season finishing third in GAA and second in save percentage. Could this be the year that Nashville wins its first playoff round? Meanwhile the formerly “mighty” Ducks of Anaheim had a really nice season overcoming a massive injury to Jonas Hiller by picking up Ray Emery. Led by Rocket Richard winner Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, Bobby Ryan, and Lubomir Visnovsky the Ducks have a very real ability to go deep in the playoffs. How amazing was Teemu Selanne season? He averaged more than a point per game pace and scored 31 goals. His best season since 2006-2007 and oddly after 18 seasons he doesn’t seem to be slowing down at all. Steroids? I kid, I kid. I love watching the Ducks play and Nashville has an odd charm over me (perhaps because they draft Ryan Ellis or I like their symbol, *sue me) so I will probably tune into this series.

Forwards:

The Ducks have four fantastic forwards and 2 mediocre forwards with 6 other meaningless forwards. Normally I would chastise a team for their lack of depth but the playoffs sees those other 6 forwards playing fewer minutes and having a smaller impact on the game. Plus the top four may be the best top four forwards on any one team. Their top forwards will determine how far they go and thankfully for the Ducks they have proven talent in those positions.

Put your hands up if you know who the leading scorer of the Predators is. Would you believe Martin Erat? How about Sergei Kostitsyn? They had 50 points a piece. The Predators don’t have any super high talent but they are fairly balanced. They have 9 forwards who scored ten or more goals but only two who scored over 20 and known over 25. If the predators are to move on it won’t be a single forward to take credit for it.

Edge Anaheim

Defence:

It scares me that Beauchemin is playing so many minutes with the Ducks but maybe he is more comfortable back there than he was in Toronto. Or maybe he has a better goalie behind him. Cam Fowler was a great draft pick for the Ducks (still can’t believe he fell in the draft to them) and will be a solid player despite his -25 that he posted (plus/minus may be the most misleading stat for evaluating players as it gives you no indication of skill). But the defence is led by Lubomir Visnovsky who was an awesome pick up from Edmonton and will be heading to the playoffs for the first time since 2001-02. I would rank their defence as average.

Nashville on the other hand has developed some very strong defensemen. Led by Ryan Suter and Shea Weber, Nashville’s D-men allowed the second fewest goals in the league and chipped in with 33 goals. Shea Weber has a cannon of a shot that is capable of putting a hole in the net. Cody Franson and Kevin Klein provide nice depth. Their defence is certainly superior to Anaheim’s.

Edge Nashville

Goaltending:

I have no idea who will play goal for the Ducks. Emery? Possibly injured. Hiller? Battling vertigo (really). Ellis? Uh oh. Hiller has shown to be capable of stealing series before but if he doesn’t get healthy or if his condition affects his play it could be a weakness. We have no idea what to expect from Emery and they are in trouble if Ellis is the one who ends up in net. Hopefully for Ducks fans, we’ll see Hiller in net.

I already spoke the praise for Pekka Rinne in the intro. He is a significant reason why Nashville is capable of going deep in the playoffs. He has quietly been dynamite in net and surprisingly has the smallest Veizna buzz of players that deserve, probably because he plays in Nashville. I don’t expect him to falter in this series.

Edge Nashville

Coaching:

Barry Trotz can easily argue that he gets the most with the least. Nashville has rarely had star players but everyone buys into his system. The forwards and defence commit to a defence strategy that shows once again that it works. Randy Carlyle has won a cup but has been on the hot seat before. I think he does well with star players but they are probably more responsible for it than he is. Not surprisingly the Ducks have a strong power play and a weak penalty kill whereas Nashville is the exact opposite and has a strong penalty kill and weak power play. I like Trotz a bit more than Cup winner Carlyle.

Even

Prediction:

Before thinking about it I thought that Anaheim would cruise in this series because of their dominant forwards but I didn’t take into account how good Nashville is defensively and how good Rinne was this season. This coupled with Anaheim’s huge question marks in net make Nashville seem like a good team to go on. The easiest thing to do in the playoffs is to shut down an opposing team’s top line and although Anaheim goes two deep Nashville should be strong enough defensively to contain them. Finally Nashville is the most disciplined team in the league taking 400 fewer penalty minutes than Anaheim (that stat is ridiculous), this is probably mostly majors but if there is one weakness among Anaheim’s top forwards it is that they have a tendency to take stupid penalties. Nashville takes a close one in 7 games.

Eastern Conference Tomorrow